Canada announces reduction in immigration targets over the next three years

Canada announces reduction in immigration targets over the next three years

Canada, known for its welcoming immigration policies and robust multiculturalism, is making significant adjustments to its immigration targets for both permanent and temporary residents over the next three years. While immigration has long been a key driver of Canada’s population growth and economic success, rising concerns about housing affordability, labor market saturation, and social services capacity have prompted the government to scale back some of its ambitious targets. This new approach aims to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth through immigration while addressing the growing societal pressures stemming from rapid population increases.

In the Immigration Levels Plan released on October 24, 2023, the Canadian government announced a reduction in its targets for permanent resident admissions for the next three years. The initial targets set in the previous 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan envisioned aggressive increases in the number of permanent residents to bolster Canada’s aging population and address labor shortages. However, the revised targets mark a significant reduction in the number of planned admissions.

2025 will now see 395,000 new permanent residents, a notable decrease from the original goal of 485,000 for 2024 and the previously announced target of 500,000 for 2025 in the earlier plan. This downward trend continues, with 380,000 new permanent residents in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, representing a significant shift from the government’s earlier immigration strategy.

Addressing housing and social pressures

One of the key drivers behind the scaling back of immigration targets is the housing crisis. Across Canada, housing affordability has become a major issue, with rising costs for both renting and owning homes. In cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the influx of new immigrants has contributed to skyrocketing demand for housing, further driving up prices.

In announcing the new immigration targets, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Immigration Minister Marc Miller both emphasized the need to alleviate pressure on housing and social services.

While the reduction in temporary residents is expected to ease pressure on the housing market, the government is also relying on a transition of temporary residents to permanent residency to reduce their overall population. As temporary residents gain permanent residency and settle in Canada long-term, their status as newcomers will no longer strain housing and social services in the same way.

Despite the overall reduction in permanent resident targets, the government is increasing the proportion of immigrants admitted through economic immigration programs. These programs, including those managed through Express Entry, target individuals who possess the skills and experience needed to meet Canada’s labor market demands. In fact, over 40% of economic immigrants are expected to be temporary residents already in Canada, transitioning to permanent status through programs like the Canadian Experience Class and Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs).

Economic immigration targets have also been reduced, but the cut is smaller compared to the overall decline in immigration targets. For 2025, economic immigration targets will drop by only 17%, from 281,000 to 232,000. This reflects the government’s intent to prioritize skilled workers who can contribute to the Canadian economy while addressing critical gaps in sectors like healthcare, technology, and engineering.

Refugees and humanitarian admissions

Refugee admissions will decrease, from 68,350 in 2025 to 58,650 by 2027. While Canada remains committed to its humanitarian responsibilities, the government has acknowledged that housing and social services infrastructure are under strain.

Family reunification

Targets will decline from 94,500 in 2025 to 81,000 by 2027. This reflects the government’s focus on balancing economic immigration with humanitarian commitments and family reunification.

PNP targets reduced

One of the most surprising aspects of the revised immigration plan is the drastic reduction in targets for Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs). PNPs allow provinces to select immigrants who meet specific labor market needs. Previously, the government had planned to admit 110,000 new permanent residents through PNPs in 2024, with a target of 120,000 for 2025. However, the new plan cuts PNP targets by 50%, setting a cap of just 55,000 for each of the next three years.

This reduction marks a significant shift in immigration policy. The PNPs were initially introduced to allow provinces more control over immigration and to better address regional labor shortages. Cutting these targets signals a more centralized approach to immigration policy, with a stronger focus on federal economic immigration streams, particularly those managed through Express Entry.

Decrease in Temporary Resident targets

In contrast to permanent resident targets, temporary resident admissions are set to decline even more sharply. For the first time, the Canadian government has introduced specific targets for temporary residents, including those on work permits and study permits. The government has set ambitious goals to reduce the proportion of temporary residents in Canada, from 7% of the population to 5% by 2026.

The new targets for temporary residents are as follows:

• 2025: 673,650 temporary residents, down from the peak of over 700,000 in 2023.
• 2026: 516,600 temporary residents, a sharp decline reflecting reduced work permits under the International Mobility Program (IMP).
• 2027: 543,600 temporary residents.

Drastic drop in IMP targets

The reduction in work permits is particularly notable in the International Mobility Program (IMP), which facilitates the entry of foreign workers who do not require a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA). The IMP target will drop from 285,750 in 2025 to just 128,700 in 2026, reflecting the government’s desire to limit the entry of low-wage foreign workers and address concerns about labor market imbalances.

Increase in Francophone immigration

In addition to these reductions, there is a notable increase in the government’s focus on French-speaking immigrants settling outside Quebec. By 2027, 10% of permanent residents will be French speakers, up from 8.5% in 2025.

Increase in Federal High Skilled immigration

While PNPs are being scaled back, the government is increasing its emphasis on Federal High Skilled (FHS) immigration programs, which are also managed through Express Entry. These programs focus on attracting skilled workers who can fill critical labor shortages across the country.

For 2025, FHS targets have been increased to 124,680, up from 110,770 in the previous plan. By 2027, the FHS target will rise to 118,730. This reflects the government’s strategic shift toward attracting high-skilled immigrants who can immediately contribute to Canada’s economy and help address labor market imbalances in key sectors.

Conclusion

Canada’s revised immigration targets for the 2025-2027 period represent a significant shift in the country’s approach to immigration. While the overall number of permanent and temporary residents is being reduced, the government is focusing more intently on economic immigration, particularly through federal high-skilled programs.

The reduction in PNP targets, the decline in temporary residents, and the new emphasis on housing and infrastructure capacity indicate that the Canadian government is seeking to balance the benefits of immigration with the challenges of a rapidly growing population. As Canada continues to navigate its immigration future, these changes will play a key role in shaping the country’s social and economic landscape for years to come.

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