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Blog Details
Fri
Jan
TFWP reveals the latest unemployment rates for 2025
Canada’s labour market is a key determinant of economic health, directly affecting the ability of employers to hire foreign workers. The government regularly updates unemployment rates for Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), which influence Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) approvals. On January 10, 2025, the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) updated its list of CMA unemployment rates, a crucial reference for businesses seeking foreign labour under the low-wage stream. This update is significant for both employers and workers, as it determines which CMAs remain eligible for LMIA applications and which do not.
In the January 2025 update, several CMAs saw their unemployment rates drop below 6%, making them eligible for LMIA applications under the low-wage stream. These CMAs include:
- Vancouver, BC
- Abbotsford-Mission, BC
- Winnipeg, MB
- Brantford, ON
- Kingston, ON
- Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC
- Trois-Rivières, QC
On the other hand, some CMAs saw an increase in their unemployment rates, surpassing the 6% threshold. As a result, they are now ineligible for low-wage LMIA processing until at least April 3, 2025. These CMAs are:
- Saint John, NB
- Guelph, ON
- Barrie, ON
Regional breakdown of unemployment rate changes
A closer examination of the unemployment rate changes in specific CMAs reveals key economic trends in various parts of Canada.
Winnipeg, Manitoba, saw an encouraging decline from 6.6% to 5.6%, making it eligible for LMIA applications. However, Regina, Saskatchewan, experienced only a modest improvement, with its unemployment rate falling from 6.7% to 6.1%, still above the threshold.
The British Columbia labour market remains relatively strong. Vancouver, the province’s largest CMA, recorded a decrease in unemployment from 6.5% to 5.9%, making it eligible for LMIA applications once again. Abbotsford-Mission followed a similar trend, dropping from 6.5% to 5.4%. Meanwhile, Kelowna, despite experiencing a slight increase from 4.9% to 5.3%, remains well below the 6% threshold, keeping its LMIA eligibility intact.
Ontario remains a mixed bag in terms of labour market performance. While Toronto continues to struggle with high unemployment (7.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau showed significant improvement, dropping from 6.9% to 5.4%, re-entering LMIA eligibility. Brantford and Kingston also saw substantial drops, reaching 4.2% and 5.7%, respectively. However, some Ontario CMAs worsened. Guelph, previously below the threshold at 5.9%, now sits at 6.2%, making it ineligible. Similarly, Barrie’s rate rose from 5.7% to 6.0%, and it will no longer be able to process low-wage LMIA applications.
In Alberta, Calgary (7.5%) and Edmonton (6.8%) continue to struggle with high unemployment, keeping them ineligible for LMIA applications under the low-wage stream. Lethbridge, however, maintains a relatively low rate of 4.9%, indicating better job market conditions in that region.
In Atlantic Canada, Halifax saw a notable improvement, with its unemployment rate declining from 5.7% to 4.6%. Meanwhile, Moncton’s rate increased slightly from 5.2% to 5.4%. Saint John, however, saw an increase from 5.7% to 6.1%, making it ineligible for LMIA applications.
Several Quebec CMAs showed positive trends. Trois-Rivières, which previously had an unemployment rate of 6.7%, now sits at 5.2%, making it eligible again. Sherbrooke and Québec City remain below 6%, with rates of 4.1% and 4.1%, respectively. However, Montreal’s unemployment rate remains high at 6.2%, keeping it ineligible for LMIA applications.
The LMIA process is essential for hiring foreign workers in Canada. Employers must demonstrate that no qualified Canadians are available for a given job before hiring internationally. Since September 26, 2024, the government has implemented stricter LMIA rules for low-wage positions. Under these regulations:
- If the CMA’s unemployment rate is 6% or higher, LMIA applications for low-wage jobs will not be processed.
- The offered wage must be at or above the provincial/territorial wage threshold.
- Certain sectors, such as agriculture, healthcare, construction, food processing, and fish processing, are exempt from these restrictions.
What are the Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)?
A Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) consists of a core urban area with a population of at least 100,000 and surrounding municipalities that are closely integrated with the central city. CMAs often include multiple cities, making them vital economic hubs. For instance, the Vancouver CMA includes Burnaby, and Vancouver, while the Windsor CMA comprises Lakeshore, Windsor, LaSalle, Amherstburg, and Tecumseh.
Implications for employers and foreign workers
Employers in CMAs that have dropped below the 6% threshold now have new opportunities to recruit foreign workers. Businesses in Vancouver, Ottawa-Gatineau, and Trois-Rivières, for instance, can once again apply for LMIAs under the low-wage stream. This is particularly beneficial for industries facing labour shortages, such as hospitality, retail, and manufacturing.
However, employers in CMAs where unemployment has increased—such as Saint John and Barrie—will face hiring challenges. They must now prioritize recruiting Canadian workers or look for alternative hiring solutions, such as focusing on high-wage positions, which are not subject to the 6% unemployment threshold.
The future of Canadian labour market policies
Canada’s LMIA regulations are likely to evolve further in response to shifting economic conditions. The government aims to balance labour market needs while ensuring Canadians have access to employment opportunities before hiring foreign workers.
With ongoing economic recovery efforts post-pandemic and inflationary pressures affecting different sectors, unemployment rates may fluctuate further in the coming months. Employers and workers should stay updated on LMIA regulations and government announcements to adapt their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion
The January 2025 update of Canada’s CMA unemployment rates has brought significant changes to LMIA eligibility under the low-wage stream. Regions such as Vancouver, Ottawa-Gatineau, and Winnipeg have regained eligibility, while places like Saint John and Guelph have lost access. Employers and foreign workers must closely monitor these changes to navigate Canada’s labour market effectively. As economic conditions continue to shift, staying informed about unemployment trends and LMIA policies will be crucial for businesses and job seekers alike.
